Last updated 4/24/2024
Tesla should not be looked as a car company. It's a robotics, AI, and energy company.
The dominance of their position in the race to build a fully autonomous vehicle is the nearest term catalyst for meaningful growth in the value of the company. The Cybercab will be unveiled on August 8th of this year (2024). This is their purpose-built robotaxi designed without a steering wheel or pedals which points to their confidence that their self-driving technology will be ready for prime time by the time the Cybercab is in production likely in 2025. Tesla is uniquely positioned to build and deploy autonomous vehicles.
Tesla is the only company in America that can profitably manufacture and sell electric vehicles. Not only are they the only company that is not losing money on every EV they sell, Tesla's EV profit margins are significantly higher than even traditional combustion engine vehicles. Tesla's manufacturing talent is the best in the world and will be a significant advantage for the foreseeable future.
Tesla's utility scale energy storage products business is growing faster than their car business. Demand is gigantic across the world for these products and growth is only constrained by the speed of their production ramp. These products are more scalable, modular, come with advanced software and controls, are more cost-effective, and can be deployed more rapidly than traditional grid storage solutions.
The Tesla Bot has the potential to be more valuable than all other Tesla businesses combined. Demand for a general purpose humanoid robot is effectively unlimited. A useful general purpose humanoid robot has financial potential that is on the scale of the entire global economy. An economy is just useful labor multiplied by number of laborers. If there is no longer a constraint on the number of laborers, there is no longer a constraint on the size of the economy. Tesla's existing dominance in manufacturing, AI, inference compute, and robotics (electric motors and actuators), positions them perfectly to realize this potential.
Tesla's charging infrastructure is the best in the world and is growing rapidly. Every major car company in the US has agreed to and announced plans to switch to using Tesla's charging ports and supercharger network.
Other things: Tesla's growing insurance business, growing solar business, potential for AWS-like cloud computing for AI training and inference, Tesla's growing home energy storage business, future products such as autonomous busses, vans, etc., licensing self-driving technology, and more.
Estimate does not include Optimus, energy generation or storage products, tesla services, ev charging infrastructure, potential FSD licensing, or any other potential businesses. Meaning this is a conservative estimate.